Saturday, 8 November 2008

What's in a phone call?

When trying to assess the exact configuration of President-elect Obama's foreign policy priorities, the Rhino has been trying to track his phone calls to world leaders.

On Thursday he spoke with the leaders of Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Japan, the UK, Germany, France, Israel, and Australia. That would be an obvious first nine calls to make for any president-elect. He has since spoken with the leaders of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Italy, Poland, and Pakistan.

Having presumably discussed his suntan with Berlusconi, the call to President Zardari in Pakistan was a wise one. Many experts, Vice President-elect Biden ranking highly amongst them, see the gargantuan danger that the current mess in Pakistan presents. It is very plausible that Pakistan could present the considerable foreign policy challenge of his administration, given that the situation there worsens daily and is inextricably linked to Afghanistan. With that in mind, has he spoken to Karzai or Maliki yet?

And, given the obvious importance that India enjoys on the world stage, not least as the world's largest democracy that has an obvious interest in Pakistan and the potential to be a positive counter-balance to China - why is Obama leaving the leaders in New Delhi lurking by the telephone like lovestruck teenagers? [Added to this is the reality that the US and India recently signed a civilian nuclear agreement that has mammoth geopolitical implications]

The president-elect has also spoken with the manikin that pretends to be in charge in Moscow. Is Moscow more important than Beijing? Or less deserving of some tough love?

Surely a call to Brasilia is on the horizon shortly. Given Obama has to address some pressing humanitarian matters as well, calls to Bangkok [on Myanmar] and Pretoria [on the entire continent, not least the current flare up in the DRC] would be prudent. I do add that South Africa is my native land so that may explain any personal bias. However, I do feel that given the scale of the challenges posed by the continet, it would be wise for the president-elect to start cultivating meaningful relastionships in a region where he is now the number one celebrity. He could, of course, be forgiven for not knowing who is actually in charge in South Africa - God only knows.

One cannot read too much into phone calls, but on first glance no fundamental realignment in international relations suggests itself. What is worth watching is where India and China figure on the pecking order, given Beijing and New Delhi have yet to receive the magic phone call, even though President Bush attempted to befriend both.

On another point of personal bias, Irish-Americans are feeling a little discomfort at the fact that the president-elect has yet to return the phone call made by the Irish Prime Minister [Taoiseach]. This same group were, quite unreasonably, perturbed when Obama did not include the emerald isle on his photo-call tour of Europe. Had Irish-Americans wanted a president who would pay lip service to Ireland then Clinton or McCain would have been better choices - remember, McCain is so infatuated with Ireland he brought her up in every debate. The reality is, with peace in Northern Ireland achieved, Ireland actually having a higher per-capita GDP then the United States (not for long), and with Obama elected, he has no reason to rank Ireland too highly on his list of foreign policy priorities. Nevertheless, one is confident that The One is not too bitter over being last in line in the 2004 Chicago St. Patrick's Day parade, as he siezed on St. Patrick's Day 2008 as an opporutinty to hold palaver with then Taoiseach Bertie Ahern, don his favourite green tie, and address a group of Irish-Americans, who he duly informed of his own Irish heritage.

As then Seanadoir Baraic O'Bama pointed out: "it never hurts to be a little Irish when running from for the presidency of the United States." Indeed. It worked for sixteen others.

He has already expressed his desire to follow in the footsteps of Kennedy, Reagan, and Clinton and visit the ancestral homeland of over forty million Americans, himself included. He will, no doubt, stay true to his words. Perhaps as election 2012 fast approaches.

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